Why a Succession Crisis Cost Hülegü the Road to Egypt

The Challenge

In 1258 Hülegü, sent west by his brother the Great Khan Möngke, had taken Baghdad and ended the Abbasid caliphate. By 1260 his armies held Aleppo and Damascus, and the Mamluk sultanate of Egypt was the last major power in their path.

Then news arrived that Möngke had died in China in 1259, and the succession to the Great Khan's throne was open.

The Approach

• Withdrew the bulk of his army from Syria to Azerbaijan to follow the succession struggle and secure his own position
• Left his general Kitbuqa in Syria with a single tümen of 10,000 men or fewer, joined by Armenian, Georgian and Frankish volunteers
• Did not return in strength while the contest between his brothers Kublai and Ariq Böke played out

The Impact

On 3 September 1260 the Mamluks under Qutuz and Baybars defeated Kitbuqa's force at Ain Jalut in Palestine, and Kitbuqa was killed. It was the first major defeat of a Mongol army in the region, and Syria was lost.

Hülegü went on to found the Ilkhanate in Persia, but the Mongols never conquered Egypt, and the Mamluks held the line against them for the rest of the century.

The Lesson for Leaders

A succession fight at the centre can undo the strongest campaign at the edge. Hülegü's choice was rational for him, but it left a reduced force facing a determined opponent at the decisive moment. When leadership at the top is uncertain, the most exposed operations pay the price.